Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61422de5a4db82c2e45b7467b06e0aac490f236aed5bc489b8b5f916741f2036
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 66c | 4,898$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,232.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 39c | 3,718$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,282.85 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 34c | 2,500$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 70c | 1,260$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.7 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed No | 26c | 1,001$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 65c | 705.71$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.71 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 35c | 702.86$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.86 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…60dabacked No | 30c | 655$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 42c | 488$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.65 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 417$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 166.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…af9cbacked No | 70c | 141.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 36c | 139.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 15c | 133.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked No | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c0…a6e5backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 66c | 54.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 35c | 40.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed No | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…0d7fbacked No | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 67c | 18.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Werder Bremen vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.