Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Gonzalo Bueno
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaeb8770444dc8803d1c7bec22fa74a243df46d4a61678c137d2f85456ca7709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buenoof Basilashvili, Bueno
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd902…d076backed Basilashvili | 1c | 1,208$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Basilashvili | 6c | 696.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Basilashvili | 41c | 527.74$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.73 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Basilashvili | 42c | 456.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.03 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Basilashvili | 50c | 433.94$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.48 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bueno | 25c | 400.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…576ebacked Basilashvili | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2c…6b78backed Bueno | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Bueno | 54c | 291.73$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Basilashvili | 4c | 286.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bueno | 20c | 268.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Basilashvili | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bueno | 59c | 241.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…0244backed Basilashvili | 47c | 201.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Basilashvili | 40c | 198.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…34d2backed Basilashvili | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Bueno | 72c | 121.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Bueno | 59c | 119.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Basilashvili | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Basilashvili | 46c | 107.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Bueno | 22c | 103.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Basilashvili | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Bueno | 21c | 93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bueno | 21c | 92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bueno | 57c | 56.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Bueno | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Basilashvili | 40c | 49.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Bueno | 75c | 49.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Basilashvili | 42c | 47.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7df…809bbacked Bueno | 39c | 29.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Bueno | 53c | 23.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…fb78backed Bueno | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…f2b3backed Basilashvili | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Basilashvili | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…54afbacked Basilashvili | 79c | 13.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Gonzalo Buenothis page
- Basilashvili vs. Bueno: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.