Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaf4752a2ef2b0fd1be9c17595e3591c7ff8e7648000ea2e572cf3074e132b0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 7c | 4,418$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.74 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 28c | 2,907$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.77 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 1,996$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.95 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed No | 68c | 1,125$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 73c | 1,093$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.11 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed No | 73c | 980.85$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 5c | 510.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 70c | 374.17$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Yes | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…3106backed Yes | 28c | 341.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Yes | 7c | 290.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.7wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 72c | 277.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 263.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 252.96$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 251.6$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 26c | 186.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…e91bbacked Yes | 31c | 161.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 30c | 157.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 72c | 141.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b8…98d8backed Yes | 11c | 134.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 72c | 103.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 74c | 96.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…0593backed No | 72c | 91.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd4…b8afbacked Yes | 26c | 90.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 29c | 87.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 29c | 87.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 69c | 82.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 70c | 81.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 32c | 73.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked No | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 74c | 66.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 27c | 62.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e65…9acabacked Yes | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…184dbacked Yes | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 27c | 48.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Yes | 32c | 46.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed Yes | 32c | 33.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 70c | 28.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 421 | 51.3%216 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 69c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…8417backed No | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…17bdbacked No | 72c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?No won
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.