Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf767902f43bb900cb4cbf476643d0cc5545d030fe0a7c9025345519c0f2abc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 9c | 16,474$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.53 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 44c | 4,738$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,668.48 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 62c | 3,176$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.82 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 38c | 1,111$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.8 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 40c | 940.17$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.23 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 54c | 769.39$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.03 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked No | 3c | 623.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 4c | 609.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 79c | 586.97$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.79 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 79c | 467.73$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…21babacked No | 4c | 395.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 76c | 333.82$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 79c | 330.93$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 55c | 250.44$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Yes | 74c | 237.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 62c | 195.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 39c | 179.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 62c | 156.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 62c | 156.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 62c | 156.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 52c | 149.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 72c | 109.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…f5e9backed No | 63c | 100.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 62c | 97.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…6fe0backed Yes | 72c | 97.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 44c | 96.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 28c | 95.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 61c | 84.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes | 73c | 80.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 46c | 71.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 60c | 64.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 45c | 61.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 28c | 59.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 62c | 58.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 62c | 58.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 62c | 57.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 28c | 50.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Yes | 69c | 49.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Yes | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 38c | 39.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 62c | 39.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Yes | 71c | 38.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 55c | 36.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…cb2bbacked Yes | 75c | 35.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Yes | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 45c | 27.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 55c | 26.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed No | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…d123backed Yes | 73c | 22.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 71c | 20.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ea…645fbacked Yes | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756c…651bbacked Yes | 73c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 62c | 18.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked No | 62c | 18.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.