Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaa9144a2161e2eaa6e4964bfb20fed46e8e304045a4d71fa349895ca91a5cc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9f…b8f7backed Yes | 35c | 3,628$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 3,032$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.75 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 4c | 445.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 69c | 431.51$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 319.17$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 312.92$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 68c | 298.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…21babacked Yes | 4c | 282.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 24c | 204.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 68c | 156.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 31c | 154.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 23c | 148.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 21c | 134.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 23c | 117.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 19c | 104.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 31c | 98.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 69c | 96.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 31c | 92.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7101…884bbacked No | 79c | 64.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 35c | 56.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 32c | 52.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 36c | 45.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 32c | 44.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa01f…8f40backed Yes | 36c | 43.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 68c | 33.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 70c | 31.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 70c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…bcfebacked No | 65c | 26.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed No | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 69c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.