Earnings · resolved market
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb1858912484dd101b4cff8bfad6d6d809230689cdf2acb6c2b8f72db47628d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 49c | 1,754$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.86 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…8bc6backed No | 76c | 660.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.74 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.33per pick | 59cpaid | +68%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed Yes | 13c | 469.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 11c | 455.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 17c | 435.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 29c | 348.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 75c | 277$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.75 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 48c | 178.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 79c | 178.03$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 160$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 104.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 102$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 11c | 93.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 76c | 17.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.