CS2 · resolved market
IEM Melbourne: MOUZ vs. Falcons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb20cf46f19ad1c68b27d36f7c00c8f1787f41be4547b3645a837e7fb376e733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof MOUZ, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Falcons | 46c | 4,107$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.88 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed MOUZ | 51c | 3,500$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed MOUZ | 52c | 2,378$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.14 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Falcons | 46c | 1,330$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.9 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Falcons | 61c | 820$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.4 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ | 52c | 600$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 152 | 51.3%78 W · 74 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…e272backed Falcons | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…8104backed Falcons | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…d384backed Falcons | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7d47backed MOUZ | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed MOUZ | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked MOUZ | 53c | 77.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Falcons | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed MOUZ | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…db7abacked Falcons | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ac…eb63backed Falcons | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Falcons | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72f…ada8backed Falcons | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…e9a6backed Falcons | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.