AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb3097da94d7eaf185196f9b384c8e37499248ada1fcd0465b30531cca30d269
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 27c | 756$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 73c | 669$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 15c | 636$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 17c | 440$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 15c | 319$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 73c | 276$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 27c | 232$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0fbdbacked No | 79c | 119.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 103.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 77c | 13.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.