NFL · resolved market
Will the Broncos beat the Chiefs by 10 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb498f493f8f3d66ae8f8d8834ed3a5320cfa9617aaafaabf39e2c2df75eb227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Broncos, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Chiefs | 49c | 8,194$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Broncos | 51c | 7,779$3,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,806.46 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Broncos | 52c | 1,800$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Chiefs | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Chiefs | 47c | 999.99$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Broncos | 54c | 500$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Broncos | 53c | 221.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab71…6f34backed Broncos | 52c | 176.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Chiefs | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Chiefs | 47c | 63.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Chiefs | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Chiefs | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Broncos | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2558…9acebacked Chiefs | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Broncos | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…e6c9backed Broncos | 58c | 17.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Broncos beat the Chiefs by 10 or more points?this page
- Will the Bills beat the Patriots by 3 or more points?Patriots won
- Will the Buccaneers beat the Saints by 14 or more points?Saints won
- Will the Commanders beat the Cowboys by 7 or more points?Cowboys won
- Will the Eagles beat the Giants by 3 or more points?Eagles won
- Will the Texans beat the Titans by 2 or more points?Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.