MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb66c3da8a3ecab7b7ecd2d74b20b55ec10723d100d441720d344c7d37cddc54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 6,262$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 2,529$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.12 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 18c | 1,197$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 765.23$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.39 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 688.71$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.14 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 631$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.54 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 487$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.38 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 340.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 13c | 287$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 244$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 242.76$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 13c | 151.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 148.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 110.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 108.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Philadelphia Phillies | 21c | 97.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 13c | 91.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 81.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 63.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…da6bbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 57.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 50.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 46.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 44.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 40.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 39.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…87e2backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.