MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f31747be7738c6b238a6b947428b14b5fa9a3a3b5a593981e45c0951ffb390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 51c | 5,209$2,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,642.25 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 2,260$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.6 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 1,458$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.55 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,397$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.68 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 1,396$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.16 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…07b5backed Under | 72c | 980.8$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.15 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 970.25$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 47c | 797.11$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.07 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 50c | 728.08$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.64 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 49c | 665.72$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.2 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 62c | 555.77$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.93 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 47c | 485.21$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.16 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 443$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.93 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 304.21$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 35c | 203.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 197.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 52c | 193.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 16c | 154$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 126.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 102.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 90.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 55c | 76.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 68.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 47c | 62.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 49c | 60.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 40c | 52.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 53c | 36.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 50c | 34.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 47c | 30.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.