Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb87ef4fcad3a0b3a44b722a9a8167e6d055c57f95aa6792b6965c8b97b9a246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f69…ef9bbacked No | 11c | 642.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 556.92$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 29c | 510.81$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.38 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 20c | 303.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 282.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 254.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 10c | 237$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 31c | 226.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.23 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 47c | 201.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 67c | 188.62$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 33c | 178.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 22c | 151.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 9c | 145.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 104.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 103.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 67c | 101.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 35c | 90.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 82.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 78.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…07aebacked Yes | 31c | 75.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 64c | 73.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 64c | 68.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 69c | 65.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 78c | 62.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 35c | 62.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…4381backed No | 65c | 59.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 39c | 55.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2006…7e1bbacked No | 74c | 52.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 74c | 49.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…e024backed Yes | 33c | 49.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 50c | 49.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 41c | 46.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 42.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 33c | 41.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 38.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 37.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 69c | 37.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 53c | 35.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 58c | 33.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 75c | 32.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…2ab1backed No | 73c | 32.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…b585backed No | 65c | 31.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 35c | 30.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 28.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 69c | 28.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 51c | 27.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…4c15backed Yes | 39c | 26.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a6…bb90backed No | 67c | 25.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 58c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…1f53backed No | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 21.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 54c | 19.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 67c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.