South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb97a0dfe79987f048f3ed08542b146eefa8b3370a0a1b403f2c5a2104929691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Boston Riverof São Paulo FC, CA Boston River
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CA Boston River | 66c | 1,069$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.33 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed São Paulo FC | 34c | 1,010$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.35 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed São Paulo FC | 34c | 995.5$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed São Paulo FC | 29c | 841.38$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked CA Boston River | 71c | 435.16$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed CA Boston River | 71c | 352.99$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…72a1backed São Paulo FC | 31c | 339.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked São Paulo FC | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed São Paulo FC | 32c | 240$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed São Paulo FC | 30c | 210.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed São Paulo FC | 30c | 210$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed CA Boston River | 70c | 178$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed São Paulo FC | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CA Boston River | 70c | 121.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed São Paulo FC | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked CA Boston River | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CA Boston River | 73c | 49.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a5…b591backed CA Boston River | 66c | 44.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked CA Boston River | 70c | 23.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked CA Boston River | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…195fbacked CA Boston River | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked CA Boston River | 72c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked CA Boston River | 73c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)this page
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 2.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 4.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.