South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25b4c10c6c2115f19ef4feb2ff277f29de8a62ea37da0b9ec31cd36de3cead42

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: São Paulo FCof São Paulo FC, CA Boston River
Resolved: May 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $100,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $140,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,035 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xff3d…7fc8backed São Paulo FC	51c	39,344$20,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,303.21	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed CA Boston River	48c	18,158$8,665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,664.69	2,514	39%980 W · 1,534 L	-32.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed CA Boston River	49c	8,174$4,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,005.02	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked CA Boston River	49c	2,859$1,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,403.62	130	49.2%64 W · 66 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed CA Boston River	50c	2,063$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029.58	1,944	51.3%998 W · 946 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed CA Boston River	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed São Paulo FC	54c	1,476$802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$673.74	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed CA Boston River	48c	1,210$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.11	200	46%92 W · 108 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked CA Boston River	49c	1,200$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588	130	59.2%77 W · 53 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked CA Boston River	48c	1,125$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.52	3,405	51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L	+21.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked CA Boston River	49c	1,097$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.69	1,668	51.7%863 W · 805 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed CA Boston River	50c	974.37$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.58	1,302	50.2%653 W · 649 L	-13.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed CA Boston River	43c	939.79$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.11	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed CA Boston River	48c	925.83$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.32	248	55.2%137 W · 111 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked São Paulo FC	62c	804.5$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.5	115	65.2%75 W · 40 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked CA Boston River	43c	743$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.84	1,355	49.7%674 W · 681 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed CA Boston River	49c	600$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed CA Boston River	48c	594.21$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.69	452	53.1%240 W · 212 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed CA Boston River	36c	577.3$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.21	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed São Paulo FC	50c	536.84$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.31	57	24.6%14 W · 43 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed CA Boston River	49c	510$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.9	1,651	50.6%836 W · 815 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed CA Boston River	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	195	59.5%116 W · 79 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed CA Boston River	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	288	51.7%149 W · 139 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed CA Boston River	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	230	56.5%130 W · 100 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed CA Boston River	49c	314.05$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.4	2,335	51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked CA Boston River	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	249	56.6%141 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed CA Boston River	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	183	58.5%107 W · 76 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked CA Boston River	49c	299.93$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.97	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed CA Boston River	49c	299.24$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.82	129	45%58 W · 71 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-18%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed CA Boston River	52c	277.88$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.09	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed CA Boston River	49c	260$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.4	165	59.4%98 W · 67 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked CA Boston River	49c	260$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.4	158	57.6%91 W · 67 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…03e5backed CA Boston River	39c	249.64$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.36	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed CA Boston River	51c	246$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.8	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	-7.6wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f01…548cbacked CA Boston River	50c	240.52$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked São Paulo FC	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	317	45.1%143 W · 174 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked CA Boston River	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ac2…f949backed São Paulo FC	61c	196.72$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.72	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f9…87b0backed São Paulo FC	50c	164.47$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.24	183	52.5%96 W · 87 L	+10.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed CA Boston River	49c	160$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.4	213	58.7%125 W · 88 L	+7.1wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked CA Boston River	48c	159.37$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	332	66.3%220 W · 112 L	+24.8wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked CA Boston River	49c	156$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.44	216	57.9%125 W · 91 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked CA Boston River	49c	156$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.44	203	60.6%123 W · 80 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed CA Boston River	49c	140$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.6	220	58.6%129 W · 91 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed São Paulo FC	51c	120$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b0f…c7e8backed São Paulo FC	54c	111.53$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.97	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-3.0wins	-0.23per pick	38cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed CA Boston River	48c	107.44$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.81	235	49.4%116 W · 119 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed CA Boston River	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	242	57%138 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed CA Boston River	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	155	60%93 W · 62 L	+8.7wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked CA Boston River	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	189	59.3%112 W · 77 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78a…fae0backed CA Boston River	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d5…41b8backed São Paulo FC	59c	93.59$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.47	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed CA Boston River	48c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked CA Boston River	48c	78.73$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.9	286	65%186 W · 100 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed CA Boston River	50c	75$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd840…1ec6backed CA Boston River	50c	72$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked CA Boston River	47c	42.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-5.9wins	-0.20per pick	52cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x93bc…7f72backed São Paulo FC	48c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.8	117	47.9%56 W · 61 L	-9.7wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed CA Boston River	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	134	65.7%88 W · 46 L	+13.1wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed CA Boston River	50c	38.21$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	104	50%52 W · 52 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed CA Boston River	51c	38.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	1,439	37.5%540 W · 899 L	+4.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed São Paulo FC	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+35%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed CA Boston River	49c	37.67$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.46	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ec…f645backed São Paulo FC	51c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.59	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed CA Boston River	49c	30.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	77	61%47 W · 30 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8de6…8b3cbacked CA Boston River	49c	29.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.58	129	58.1%75 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed São Paulo FC	53c	28.36$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.4	388	61.3%238 W · 150 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x856e…438abacked CA Boston River	54c	27.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x831d…3893backed CA Boston River	54c	27.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed CA Boston River	47c	25.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	130	50.8%66 W · 64 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc42…b12cbacked CA Boston River	54c	25.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed CA Boston River	48c	25.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	129	48.1%62 W · 67 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed CA Boston River	50c	25.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	61	59%36 W · 25 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…28b8backed CA Boston River	50c	25.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f9…92e3backed CA Boston River	54c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed São Paulo FC	58c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	424	62.3%264 W · 160 L	+24.4wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed CA Boston River	49c	24.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	278	55.4%154 W · 124 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc8…8f9bbacked CA Boston River	50c	23.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed CA Boston River	49c	20.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	104	67.3%70 W · 34 L	+12.8wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+25%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa5ac…e602backed CA Boston River	50c	20.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)this page
Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)CA Boston River won
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 0.5Over won
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 1.5Over won
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 2.5Under won
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 3.5Under won
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 4.5Under won
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 5.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event