South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82168ed47feaf6c50c2b43414d53568cdf05b690c3987fe9d7a83d94ccb8ac6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over | 57c | 1,569$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.32 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 1c | 1,531$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…3c50backed Under | 66c | 1,100$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.04 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 64c | 1,000$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Over | 3c | 474.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Over | 52c | 400$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.07 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Under | 30c | 305.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.04 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 60c | 281.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.32 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 20c | 266.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.84 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 241.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.57 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Under | 46c | 217.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 39c | 212$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 35c | 206.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814e…40b1backed Over | 76c | 173.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…4078backed Under | 28c | 155.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 51c | 129.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 122.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…2b66backed Under | 52c | 108.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 60c | 94.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 58c | 71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 67.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…6a61backed Under | 23c | 65.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 24c | 58.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 51c | 57.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 42c | 45.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 78c | 38.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 51c | 33.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 42c | 31.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 43c | 30.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a5…b591backed Under | 43c | 30.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 59c | 27.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 59c | 24.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 48c | 23.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -16.3wins | -0.36per pick | 43cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Under | 77c | 20.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)CA Boston River won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 4.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.