Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbab665d823152d7171113e2f9d7c8fa3c3f790768081242df984f9864bdd655
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LGD Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, LGD Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Xtreme Gaming | 32c | 3,135$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked LGD Gaming | 68c | 2,824$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.61 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed LGD Gaming | 66c | 2,381$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.52 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Xtreme Gaming | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed LGD Gaming | 66c | 1,638$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.92 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Xtreme Gaming | 37c | 1,500$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.38 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed Xtreme Gaming | 30c | 1,378$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.09 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…b26bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 33c | 609.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed LGD Gaming | 70c | 555.81$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.74 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked LGD Gaming | 67c | 509.09$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked LGD Gaming | 69c | 508.23$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.55 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…2f0dbacked LGD Gaming | 70c | 460.37$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Xtreme Gaming | 34c | 322.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…644ebacked LGD Gaming | 70c | 282.38$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…7ff7backed LGD Gaming | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 212.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Xtreme Gaming | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 222 | 60.4%134 W · 88 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked LGD Gaming | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…c2bebacked Xtreme Gaming | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked LGD Gaming | 70c | 57.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Xtreme Gaming | 35c | 36.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Xtreme Gaming | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked LGD Gaming | 65c | 26.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed LGD Gaming | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…6d7fbacked LGD Gaming | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group StageLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.