Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99587f7b8b018f56548d30703d46887d156038f4d98b2105d0462256b2ff1417
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 1c | 12,198$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 52c | 1,018$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.4 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 53c | 1,006$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.82 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 49c | 798$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 40c | 785.4$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.24 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Over | 64c | 310.22$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…6b32backed Over | 55c | 181.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 49c | 164$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 47c | 154.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 48c | 63.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Over | 48c | 43.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed Over | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 49c | 29.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group StageLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.