Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbce49640da8f9b5c676829f8f2420557959971c3657f18929126a33d39ad948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc01b…7718backed Yes | 61c | 9,833$6,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,817.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 8,742$3,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,110.79 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…5598backed No | 71c | 5,640$4,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,004.4 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 2,706$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.1 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 2,471$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.16 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 32c | 1,660$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.11 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 33c | 1,379$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.93 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…efa4backed No | 53c | 1,303$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 40c | 1,180$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.18 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 41c | 1,172$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.76 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 42c | 1,140$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.62 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 57c | 844.19$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.54 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 22c | 682.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 517.87$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.71 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 37c | 497.85$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.07 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 29c | 390$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.9 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 29c | 365.05$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.19 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 29c | 303.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…cc73backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 41c | 170.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 18c | 148$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Yes | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 42c | 138.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 29c | 106.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…81abbacked No | 18c | 96.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 28c | 86.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…1ff9backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 33c | 81.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 29c | 79.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 30c | 68.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 41c | 64.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd019…4ee0backed Yes | 33c | 59.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 70c | 49.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…bec4backed Yes | 30c | 48.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…e1b2backed No | 64c | 44.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked No | 41c | 44.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…4e69backed Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2682…582abacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Yes | 43c | 33.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 63c | 33.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…16c7backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 94 | 67%63 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 63c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 70c | 21.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 69c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked No | 70c | 18.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 58c | 17.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-03-01?No won
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-03-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.