Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbda0497febaeaa68c28c6d0ac5c2d1c9f7b174c97091d82600f41d8ae2664c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 43c | 7,633$3,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,255.91 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 75c | 5,690$4,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.82 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 3,701$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 2,898$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Yes | 58c | 1,337$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 74c | 1,076$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.1 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f3…9576backed Yes | 57c | 1,018$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 15c | 636.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 24c | 624.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 58c | 415.51$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.51 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 73c | 278.16$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 73c | 274.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…a63ebacked Yes | 75c | 265.94$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 43c | 252.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 61c | 204.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 58c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 24c | 192$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 25c | 185.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 9c | 164.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…9499backed Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 23c | 146.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 77c | 141.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 57c | 99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 42c | 72.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 28c | 68.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…7330backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 58c | 60.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 61c | 55.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 75c | 50.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f40ebacked Yes | 60c | 41.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…51f2backed Yes | 75c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 41c | 30.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3025…d5a6backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 58c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…d726backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…683fbacked Yes | 58c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.