Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbea8fdf23e74e99ba78ea2667d4b7b630d839ef28f872221a652abdee8e0eb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 58c | 3,468$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.57 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,389$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.79 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…f5f4backed Over | 23c | 1,092$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…7505backed Over | 65c | 534.22$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 80c | 400$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 244.16$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 28c | 171.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 139.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 21c | 123.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 78c | 105$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 48c | 94.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Over | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 27c | 62.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Over | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…f9e8backed Over | 35c | 29.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…bba1backed Over | 55c | 27.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 13.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.