Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc001639026b23fd30e017efb8a93c021424685675ba4d1da7362ab8896ddfdae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 10,236$7,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.14 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 22c | 8,815$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,933.63 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…8f4ebacked Over | 41c | 1,727$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b134backed Under | 59c | 1,727$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 41c | 1,499$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.63 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 66c | 760$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 282.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 167.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…8e64backed Under | 75c | 159.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 41c | 135$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 177 | 56.5%100 W · 77 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 42c | 116.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 41c | 114.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 41c | 112$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 103.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 41c | 76.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 59c | 48.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 42c | 39.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.