Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc06e4af309fcb85396b62f8a911d2854de29eed6b4e6495719840128ea016861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 3,440$2,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.14 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a29backed Over | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…9a38backed Under | 74c | 720.42$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 46c | 532.05$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.46 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…fe01backed Over | 64c | 221.45$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…127cbacked Under | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 36c | 174.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 37c | 154$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Over | 63c | 125.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 36c | 112.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Under | 55c | 98.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce5…0e2abacked Over | 49c | 55.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…dd56backed Under | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…3848backed Under | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 65c | 42.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 38.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d894backed Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 58c | 34.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…50aabacked Over | 64c | 28.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.