Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 71°F or below on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc1df93084bab412bea0cee2d65d6e6242f300d3d78fd6045d55c2703b5576d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 78c | 2,032$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.49 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 20c | 1,596$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 9c | 392.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 392.21$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 74c | 335.97$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed No | 9c | 316$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…ecffbacked No | 7c | 296.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 17c | 245$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked No | 14c | 211.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 67c | 203.42$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 29c | 199.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 60c | 176.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 168.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 46c | 159$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 42c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 50c | 142.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 78c | 135.28$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 13c | 123.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 15c | 113.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 43c | 109.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed No | 16c | 106.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 20c | 102.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 100.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 70c | 96.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 86.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked Yes | 64c | 77.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…6aa1backed Yes | 45c | 65.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 55.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…f525backed No | 37c | 53.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.41per pick | 56cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 70c | 52.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 45.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 56c | 43.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 54c | 41.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 35.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 44c | 32.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 61c | 28.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 44c | 26.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 47c | 25.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 43c | 23.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked Yes | 70c | 22.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 72c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…e9d0backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 76c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 71°F or below on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.