NBA · resolved market
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc261f290576091ca50845753ed4da6fe422b36764a7cb93b27c2ab82560af4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 79c | 979.89$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.12 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 11c | 462.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed No | 11c | 401.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 308.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 182.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 74c | 157.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 79c | 145.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 18c | 118.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 18c | 109.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 13c | 99.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06e…11e7backed No | 30c | 66.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 62.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 27c | 55.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304e…bdf0backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 50c | 33.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 76c | 21.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 382 | 39.5%151 W · 231 L | +35.9wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc21…f03cbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?this page
- Will the Denver Nuggets finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?No won
- Will the Golden State Warriors finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Clippers finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?No won
- Will the New Orleans Pelicans finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?No won
- Will the Phoenix Suns finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?No won
- Will the San Antonio Spurs finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?No won
- Will the Utah Jazz finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.