College Football · resolved market
Will Ohio St. beat Oregon by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc377f000e3461ab3c8c54c12de352c136fc0d8e66853660e80481ea220522ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed No | 54c | 4,631$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 47c | 1,600$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…ac7dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,595$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,193$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.75 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 47c | 124.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d4…a96bbacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 52c | 72.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Yes | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…7708backed Yes | 48c | 63.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…124abacked No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed No | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…372dbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 52c | 49.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…25e4backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…3ee3backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ohio St. beat Oregon by 4 or more points?this page
- Will Ohio St. beat Oregon?Oregon won
- Will Ohio St. and Oregon combine for 54 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.