Tennis · resolved market
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay: Michael Savano vs Niccolo Catini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc5d8e49d162f5bd252984faa4dbb1ebbc1408c77bd7a7afdd73da65ed2b6d48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michael Savanoof Michael Savano, Niccolo Catini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Niccolo Catini | 32c | 1,438$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.85 | 11,877 | 43.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L | +19.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Michael Savano | 66c | 1,110$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.4 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Niccolo Catini | 28c | 953.44$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 9,267 | 36.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L | -199.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Michael Savano | 70c | 768.57$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.57 | 1,115 | 60.3%672 W · 443 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Niccolo Catini | 37c | 749.95$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.98 | 170 | 55.9%95 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Michael Savano | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 287 | 51.6%148 W · 139 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Michael Savano | 65c | 372.61$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 4,523 | 51.7%2,340 W · 2,183 L | +135.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Niccolo Catini | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8,127 | 50.8%4,126 W · 4,001 L | +84.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michael Savano | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7,791 | 47.8%3,722 W · 4,069 L | +39.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Michael Savano | 60c | 127$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 1,112 | 57.9%644 W · 468 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Niccolo Catini | 30c | 122.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 617 | 46.2%285 W · 332 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…37cabacked Niccolo Catini | 38c | 117.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Michael Savano | 69c | 87.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 553 | 51.9%287 W · 266 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Michael Savano | 70c | 78.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 843 | 57.3%483 W · 360 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Michael Savano | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 927 | 63.9%592 W · 335 L | +66.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…8ffabacked Niccolo Catini | 32c | 43.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Michael Savano | 70c | 41.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2,076 | 52.9%1,099 W · 977 L | +33.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Michael Savano | 58c | 35.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 822 | 62.2%511 W · 311 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Michael Savano | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 422 | 60.9%257 W · 165 L | +35.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…5c03backed Michael Savano | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 413 | 57.9%239 W · 174 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Michael Savano | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 433 | 59.4%257 W · 176 L | +28.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed Michael Savano | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 480 | 59.4%285 W · 195 L | +28.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…b577backed Michael Savano | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 432 | 60%259 W · 173 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Michael Savano | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 460 | 64.3%296 W · 164 L | +24.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…000ebacked Michael Savano | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Michael Savano | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 412 | 60.9%251 W · 161 L | +33.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Michael Savano | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 343 | 63.8%219 W · 124 L | +38.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Niccolo Catini | 48c | 26.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 4,081 | 45.7%1,867 W · 2,214 L | -30.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Michael Savano | 63c | 26.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,545 | 51.2%1,303 W · 1,242 L | +14.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Michael Savano | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 5,600 | 48.5%2,717 W · 2,883 L | +10.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Michael Savano | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,324 | 64.7%857 W · 467 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Michael Savano | 58c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 404 | 58.4%236 W · 168 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Michael Savano | 67c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 647 | 26.4%171 W · 476 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.