Fifa International · resolved market
Will Poland beat Croatia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc79712642891b25326d6649e3404da3c7709ca0b34bde500833192c80d37d7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1599…f75abacked No | 72c | 8,903$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,503 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 28c | 7,717$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.22 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 75c | 2,914$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.56 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 60c | 2,007$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.12 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked No | 47c | 1,550$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 47c | 1,060$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.42 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…a827backed No | 73c | 1,019$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 69c | 608.76$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.55 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 29c | 452.63$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 50c | 378.84$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 69c | 374.9$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 28c | 243$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Yes | 16c | 131.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…7264backed No | 71c | 126.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…f454backed Yes | 31c | 125.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…f9f7backed Yes | 29c | 119.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…797fbacked No | 72c | 107.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fa…b0dbbacked No | 73c | 84.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c0…72d9backed Yes | 31c | 76.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18b…42b1backed Yes | 31c | 72.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf8…4d76backed Yes | 32c | 65.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2897…dc17backed No | 72c | 63.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…31b3backed Yes | 59c | 61.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf660…333fbacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d8…d61fbacked Yes | 32c | 59.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…3370backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Yes | 32c | 42.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Yes | 31c | 36.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d8…afe6backed No | 56c | 35.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…5be6backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…511ebacked No | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…b44cbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…90a4backed No | 70c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed No | 71c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…cc32backed No | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poland beat Croatia?this page
- Will Croatia beat Poland?No won
- Will the match between Poland and Croatia end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.