Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc833b47dfd00c1e3e6f03697eea6e9b94c0113248f1c725e6ed00cd56270454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 2,295$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 11c | 1,177$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 11c | 452.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 8c | 390.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 8c | 210.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 14c | 165.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 146.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 138.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 11c | 136.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 55c | 123.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 32c | 122.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 49c | 101.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…675cbacked No | 45c | 94.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 23c | 93.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 88.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 67c | 82.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 35c | 77.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 36c | 71.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 36c | 71.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 50c | 67.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 53c | 67.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 67.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 66.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 47c | 62.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 34c | 57.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed No | 68c | 54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 64c | 47.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 46.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 36c | 45.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 62c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 24c | 43.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 62c | 40.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 44c | 40.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…04ecbacked Yes | 78c | 37.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed No | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 58c | 34.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…3a89backed Yes | 33c | 30.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 63c | 29.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 58c | 21.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 56c | 20.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 15.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or higher on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.