Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d9c16be6d88be4f3fcbea1b2b3bcabfbea64c37f11d0328b2ae53eaf9ddb013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 540$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 22c | 247.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 79c | 227.76$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 77c | 192.82$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 73c | 186.85$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 70c | 140.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 133.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked Yes | 27c | 133.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 130.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 33c | 128.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 30c | 106.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed No | 72c | 99.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 26c | 94.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 76c | 85.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 82.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 81.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 76.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 76.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 71c | 73.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 71c | 68.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 27c | 67.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 75c | 66.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 74c | 64.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…42a4backed Yes | 23c | 63.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed No | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 60.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 31c | 59.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 24c | 58.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 28c | 54.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 28c | 53.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 40c | 50.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 26c | 48.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes | 25c | 40.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…f62fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 78c | 38.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 76c | 30.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 66c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 59c | 28.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6582…b20bbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…e02bbacked No | 74c | 18.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 78c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed No | 78c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 74c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…0479backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or higher on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.