Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc8e986718946921551bfc9a36a083a0c9f021ccfee552a3dea72e2641427242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 56c | 3,603$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 2,047$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.68 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 44c | 1,184$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.96 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 16c | 1,166$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 59c | 1,044$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.6 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked No | 57c | 863.86$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Yes | 40c | 797.58$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 58c | 750$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 64c | 400$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 43c | 357$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 68c | 282.05$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 203.17$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 56c | 128.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…d296backed Yes | 39c | 119.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897b…151ebacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 43c | 92.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 56c | 68.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…15c5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e89…edfcbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 32c | 43.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 57c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 42c | 34.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 63c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?No won
- Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-09-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.