Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbce31960e8d8e9af5d292d5404351a4ad3625375645f36bc9b1d0fd19cb3b5b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,803 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb3…5cf2backed Yes | 26c | 3,946$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…9e97backed Yes | 31c | 2,653$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…56b8backed Yes | 31c | 2,601$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…3f68backed Yes | 31c | 2,572$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd5…a22cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,565$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87d…7df2backed No | 69c | 1,345$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe93a…e5d3backed No | 74c | 1,325$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…d8a8backed No | 74c | 1,319$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff3…74f3backed No | 69c | 1,316$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…c1cebacked No | 69c | 1,308$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…6983backed No | 69c | 1,307$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…8f6cbacked No | 74c | 1,302$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…4132backed No | 69c | 1,300$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50f…a222backed No | 69c | 1,294$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…6001backed No | 69c | 1,265$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444b…d8e3backed No | 69c | 1,256$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked No | 71c | 1,015$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 864$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 26c | 798.22$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.83 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 776.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 700.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.82 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 10c | 431.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 351.13$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 4c | 349.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.99 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 14c | 338.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.01 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 10c | 320.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.71 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 9c | 308.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 29c | 300$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.45 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 279$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 11c | 266.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.02 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 252$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.65 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 241.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed Yes | 19c | 224.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 65c | 217.26$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 159.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 76c | 157.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 152.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 70c | 148.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 146.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…a382backed Yes | 20c | 145.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 144.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.23 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 42c | 138$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 133.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 130.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 126.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…a89cbacked Yes | 25c | 121.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 17c | 119.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 117$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 116.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 19c | 109.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 72c | 103.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked Yes | 25c | 101$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 28c | 92.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 88.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 74c | 82.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 73c | 79.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 34c | 74.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 23c | 70.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 30c | 70.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 75c | 61.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 56.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 24c | 54.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 26c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 21c | 52.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…d583backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 43.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 74c | 37.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 49c | 36.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 79c | 35.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 78c | 32.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked No | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 79c | 26.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6883…4406backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 23.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 75c | 23.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 77c | 22.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4770…97f6backed Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 53c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed No | 80c | 16.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 72c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 14.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 14.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…6591backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.