Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x383eec356c3c5c96cf059f73e092cfac65d6e9979ab8ecc6f0cd15583a974a57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,673 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79bd…79bbbacked Yes | 35c | 2,787$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…263cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,709$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c5…deeebacked Yes | 38c | 2,629$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…b7a5backed Yes | 37c | 2,610$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ca…36cebacked No | 65c | 1,403$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…7477backed No | 66c | 1,400$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e8…7198backed No | 65c | 1,384$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4321…71e1backed No | 62c | 1,354$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…b4b9backed No | 63c | 1,324$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…b252backed No | 66c | 1,309$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…9405backed No | 63c | 1,286$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560f…611bbacked No | 62c | 1,275$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 2c | 1,060$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,035$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 863.98$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 11c | 728.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.04 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 35c | 425.62$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 363.32$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 65c | 354$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 277.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.92 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 9c | 276.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 36c | 257.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 41c | 228.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 62c | 208.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 56c | 199.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 66c | 196.46$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 195.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 194.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 165.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 41c | 160.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 58c | 153.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 73c | 136$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 77c | 135.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 133.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 60c | 122.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 9c | 120.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 116.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 115.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 114.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 36c | 114.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 18c | 108.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 47c | 107.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 106.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 105.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 58c | 99.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked Yes | 37c | 82.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 74c | 77.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 37c | 77.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 76.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 28c | 70.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 69.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 42c | 69.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…5aabbacked Yes | 29c | 68.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 68.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 65c | 62.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 64c | 55.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 37c | 53.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 77c | 50.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…d583backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…0d01backed No | 54c | 48.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 48.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 48.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…2d9abacked Yes | 39c | 45.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 39c | 44.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf3…ce5abacked Yes | 71c | 43.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e50…7a7fbacked No | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 40.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 64c | 40.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 59c | 38.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 60c | 36.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 62c | 36.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 58c | 35.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 53c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 35.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 34.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 61c | 34.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 59c | 33.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 77c | 32.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 57c | 30.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 30.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 64c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed No | 75c | 26.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…7482backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 73c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.