Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0ceaec680365683371cdb2cbd9791d926909fb97d2e1e4bfcd53c6d53f50f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,055 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec4a…49e0backed Yes | 2c | 2,555$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,006$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 5c | 1,087$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 862.38$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…b8efbacked Yes | 66c | 580.75$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 39c | 497.18$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.97 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 454.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.37 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 299.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 39c | 260.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 32c | 191.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 174.76$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 57c | 173$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 162.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 32c | 159$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 148.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 74c | 144.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 29c | 138.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 131.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 122.19$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes | 39c | 119.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…8d20backed No | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 105.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…5254backed No | 72c | 104.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 80c | 101.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed No | 48c | 100.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 27c | 100.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 35c | 96.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 27c | 96.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 76c | 96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 69c | 94.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked No | 80c | 93.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked No | 33c | 93.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 84.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 79.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 74.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 68c | 71.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 33c | 68.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…d9bcbacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 63.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…5ab0backed No | 66c | 61.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 54c | 58.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 45c | 56.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 56.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 32c | 56.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 28c | 53.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 46c | 49.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 48.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 76c | 40.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed No | 79c | 37.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb7…4482backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 70c | 33.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 32.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…b326backed Yes | 46c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 44c | 30.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 40c | 27.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 27.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 43c | 26.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…c66dbacked Yes | 39c | 25.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 25.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 75c | 24.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 62c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed No | 46c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…c6a2backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 17.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.