Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf02ea2be7287eba138f64a04eab01aff5f00f6123a08a25687d1e1aeebd60b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 791.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 2c | 676.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.4 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 11c | 219.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 193.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 188.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…4cacbacked No | 58c | 187.55$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 159.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 73c | 137.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 134.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 134.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 10c | 132.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 125$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 110.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 109.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…7996backed No | 62c | 88.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 78.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 29c | 71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked No | 72c | 70.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 70.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 63.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 72c | 57.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7155backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 24c | 45.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 80c | 40.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 33c | 37.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 46c | 36.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 78c | 31.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…8baebacked Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 52c | 25.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 24.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 75c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.