Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe3fe56aaec32b127a3dfaecdce9e632f3f87ce8c60fa6fa1436224cb1113004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 525.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 301.67$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…cb2abacked Yes | 37c | 228.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 209.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 55c | 180.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 22c | 156.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 156.13$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 149.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 146.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 74c | 135.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 40c | 134.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 129.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 127$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 125$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 114$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 113.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 102.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked No | 61c | 85.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 79.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 78.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 33c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 23c | 68.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 64.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 18c | 63.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 67c | 54.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 51.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 67c | 49.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 28c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked Yes | 37c | 44.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 45c | 44.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 60c | 44.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked Yes | 32c | 43.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 48c | 41.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 45c | 41.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…7058backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 35c | 39.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes | 33c | 37.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 43c | 35.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 51c | 33.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 32.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 35c | 29.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 53c | 28.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 26.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c28…7ba5backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…fee5backed Yes | 54c | 19.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 71c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 62c | 19.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 15.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.