TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,208 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals50c426.81$214 inLost-$214.0112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Kansas City Royals57c172.35$98 inWon+$74.1179255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals46c165.99$76 inWon+$89.818,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals20c130.67$27 inLost-$26.65,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals51c116$59 inWon+$56.696,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals55c58.5$32 inWon+$26.232,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Kansas City Royals52c48.98$25 inWon+$23.512,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Kansas City Royals46c46.08$21 inWon+$25.0327652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Kansas City Royals46c46.08$21 inWon+$25.031,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed St. Louis Cardinals34c45.14$15 inLost-$15.151,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed St. Louis Cardinals45c30.67$14 inLost-$13.826063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked St. Louis Cardinals55c28.55$16 inLost-$15.7177353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals46c25.63$12 inWon+$13.842,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Kansas City Royals79c25.34$20 inWon+$5.3344345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked St. Louis Cardinals51c25$13 inLost-$12.6787370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.