MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddbadb9a612de6c8eedcc10a0426265d290201c77db8f717da13e9b2151539a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 17,808$11,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,368.93 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 11,674$4,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,452.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 5,306$3,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 5,145$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 4,550$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,834.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 1,217$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 1,105$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.85 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 937.5$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 892.5$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.3 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 637.76$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.5 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 317.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.25 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 216$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 193$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 166.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 155$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 96.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 96.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 83.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 79.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1d…135abacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 51.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 44.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc52…5bd3backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 41.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…3febbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 34.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…e320backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 34.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2421…e2d0backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 34.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…3b98backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 33.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…94cabacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 32.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…d900backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 32.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2355…572dbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 32.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4c…745bbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 32.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f46…9f54backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…0694backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 30.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…6d30backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 30.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…1dfebacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…8194backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 30.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…4d66backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 30.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b00…64a2backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 29.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…b95abacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 29.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 29.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4e…aceabacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…aa45backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 29.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…40adbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 29.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290b…394abacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…95d7backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 28.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b5…abc1backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 28.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…35a1backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc153…3f71backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 27.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cf…ad38backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 27.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…bb82backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 26.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf723…7835backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 26.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…d62abacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 26.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…df55backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…24a8backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 25.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 24.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4886backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 22.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…2fc0backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…909bbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.