MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c5dfaa0300ee2988a97a72e95ff4f7ee01c544794179c5751316b2e5c4d6c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 2,621$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 44c | 1,259$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.76 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 56c | 885.31$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 749.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 43c | 575.91$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.27 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 61c | 500.01$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.33 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 359.53$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 353.9$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 347.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…7c8fbacked Over | 59c | 225.23$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…96e2backed Over | 44c | 218.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 56c | 127.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 34c | 121.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Under | 42c | 101.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Under | 42c | 101.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 60c | 97.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 42c | 92.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 80.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 44c | 65.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…79c3backed Under | 56c | 53.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 56c | 39.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 39.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…8045backed Under | 57c | 32.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…ac4abacked Under | 57c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 26.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 242 | 52.9%128 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…82fcbacked Under | 57c | 21.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.