Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd179828cc02b4578f147d7ddb56c2b76f7043b8062f423460bd7ae889672c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 3,733$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.14 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 39c | 1,688$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.57 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…9745backed Yes | 60c | 1,391$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.36 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 18c | 329.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 32c | 315$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf851…ef53backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 31c | 285$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 50c | 233.98$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.11 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 32c | 159.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 531 | 34.5%183 W · 348 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…b127backed No | 40c | 124.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 64c | 89.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 66c | 80.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 61c | 68.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.