Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd555df7c4170a4103039b68af6234e36e7b8264ae64279c245c9103409c99b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 1,422$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 513.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 23c | 400.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.88 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 6c | 321.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.84 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 233.76$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.97 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 224.2$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 222.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.44 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 216.74$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 215.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526f…c710backed Yes | 10c | 205.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 43c | 194.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 8c | 194.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.66 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 9c | 168.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.53 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 157.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 24c | 106.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 101.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 100.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 98.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 78.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 78.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 79c | 75.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 23c | 74.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 74.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 73.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 68.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 73c | 68.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 67.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 16c | 63.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 62.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 42c | 58.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 58.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 52.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 50.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 25c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 73c | 40.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 39.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 70c | 15.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 13.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.