Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa736fcd7d0769550453995623227d835ccea19089009fdc36c16c3d8b80c505e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 21c | 1,326$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.1 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 982$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 849.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 488.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 473$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 458.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 438.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 1,144 | 24.7%283 W · 861 L | +26.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 424.63$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 1,706 | 60.7%1,035 W · 671 L | -23.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 390$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 566 | 54.4%308 W · 258 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 258.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 1,182 | 38.2%452 W · 730 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 229.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 208$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 207.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 77c | 200.56$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 185.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 31c | 178$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 169.37$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 159.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 159.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 146$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 24c | 132.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 129.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 128.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 120.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 110.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 102.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 100.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 255 | 60.4%154 W · 101 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 94.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 94.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 91.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…30a5backed Yes | 26c | 81.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 761 | 26.9%205 W · 556 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526f…c710backed Yes | 63c | 73.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 70.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 63.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 63.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 63.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 61.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 31c | 59.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,026 | 25%256 W · 770 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 57.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 24c | 57.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 28c | 53.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 52.8%112 W · 100 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 76c | 51.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 916 | 55.9%512 W · 404 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 50.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 78c | 50.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 48.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,837 | 11.2%317 W · 2,520 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 78c | 39.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 37.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 34.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 52c | 31.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 793 | 63.4%503 W · 290 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 31.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 561 | 51.9%291 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 28.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 27.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 76c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,003 | 71%712 W · 291 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 24.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 23.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc5…e8f2backed Yes | 63c | 23.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 78c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 459 | 59.5%273 W · 186 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 78c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 781 | 55.3%432 W · 349 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 76c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 76c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.