Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c01f514276f4d4ff4fb41c0632b6ff59eb5eba85bd941690933e16ee7eb3db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 1,095$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 44c | 1,058$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.29 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 969.76$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 733.62$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.94 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 688.85$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.66 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 53c | 504.01$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 473$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 430.85$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 65c | 365.61$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 25c | 302.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.32 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 47c | 290$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 277.89$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 28c | 213.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 186.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 181.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 72c | 180.56$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 174.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 156.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 8c | 138.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 45c | 131.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 130.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 119.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 55c | 99.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 96.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 33c | 90.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 40c | 83.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 36c | 82.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…30a5backed Yes | 41c | 82.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 57c | 77.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 39c | 75.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 74.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 46c | 71.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 71.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 23c | 70.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 52c | 62.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 49c | 61.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 60.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 59.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 42c | 59.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 58.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 57.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 56.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 55c | 55.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc5…e8f2backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6b…420fbacked Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 45.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 40c | 45.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 24c | 44.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 41.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 48c | 40.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 38.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 35.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 46c | 35.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 57c | 35.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 38c | 35.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 34.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 57c | 33.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 45c | 31.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 54c | 31.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 30.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 30.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 67c | 30.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 29.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 38c | 28.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 60c | 27.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 44c | 24.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 23.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 21.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 56c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…913fbacked No | 57c | 19.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 61c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 77c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.