Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd82bbf250a42f9a6a6f35ba61069462ef3c4f29469a63a88a7ac3b7eb172846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 773.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 646.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 27c | 394.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 284.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 239.44$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 235.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…4ed5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 114 | 4.4%5 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 31c | 176.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 150.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 145.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 136.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 94.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 40c | 90.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 88.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 74c | 88.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 58c | 88.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 46c | 73.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 30c | 66.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 66.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 63.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…17c6backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 80c | 60.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 67c | 52.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 47.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 33c | 46.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 75c | 46.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 65c | 39.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…c791backed No | 50c | 32.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 31.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7589…2775backed No | 65c | 29.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 28.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 60c | 28.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 42c | 24.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 22.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…35afbacked Yes | 57c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…9284backed No | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.