College Football · resolved market
O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdaf738ed5150a8b5d606009f72df94b442d684bc363f2fa60eaa2e64571c986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 53c | 13,299$6,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,305 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 12,631$5,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,954.11 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Under | 48c | 6,237$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 48c | 2,364$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.72 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Over | 53c | 945$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.15 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 51c | 683.1$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.72 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Over | 57c | 666$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.38 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Over | 52c | 527$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…3a31backed Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 49c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 46.5this page
- New Mexico State vs. LibertyLiberty won
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty: O/U 47.5Over won
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Liberty (-10.5)New Mexico State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.