College Football · resolved market
Spread: Liberty (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5a812aee06eb7539e177e6e25c1b349755ac1134a5019c4e9f4b6caf48b4496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexico Stateof Liberty, New Mexico State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $486,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $486,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $486,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed New Mexico State | 52c | 351,456$181,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169,885.5 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Liberty | 49c | 322,386$157,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157,173.97 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Liberty | 50c | 25,083$12,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,505.83 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…7ed6backed Liberty | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked New Mexico State | 52c | 15,000$7,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,250 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked New Mexico State | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Liberty | 45c | 13,855$6,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,302.05 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico State | 51c | 10,800$5,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,333.71 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Liberty | 49c | 9,500$4,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,655 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Liberty | 47c | 6,000$2,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,815 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Liberty | 47c | 6,000$2,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,815 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Liberty | 47c | 6,000$2,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,815 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Liberty | 46c | 5,000$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Liberty | 50c | 2,993$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.5 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Liberty | 46c | 2,100$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Liberty | 46c | 2,100$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Liberty | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Liberty | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Liberty | 45c | 1,300$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.91 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed New Mexico State | 50c | 1,023$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.73 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Liberty | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Liberty | 50c | 799.99$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Liberty | 46c | 785$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.75 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Liberty | 45c | 778$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Liberty | 50c | 666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Liberty | 51c | 656.86$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4106…ddcdbacked New Mexico State | 51c | 598.04$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…9b81backed Liberty | 50c | 597.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Liberty | 50c | 470$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked New Mexico State | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed Liberty | 51c | 221.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Liberty | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed New Mexico State | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Liberty | 51c | 137.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Liberty | 52c | 128.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Liberty | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Liberty | 48c | 69.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…d3e7backed Liberty | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…bf7abacked Liberty | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked New Mexico State | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Liberty | 51c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7af4backed Liberty | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Liberty | 51c | 28.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Liberty | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Liberty | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Liberty | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Liberty (-10.5)this page
- New Mexico State vs. LibertyLiberty won
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty: O/U 47.5Over won
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 46.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.