Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdc5034f05a624d59e5ba9a34879325e2fa5c2602d247dc0429544700f454e49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 326.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 268.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.82$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 254.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 75c | 242.62$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 192.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 79c | 174.01$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 171.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 154.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 27c | 136.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 133.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 31c | 131.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 123.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf45d…4039backed Yes | 23c | 121.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 120.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 114.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 74c | 114.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 27c | 101.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 76c | 98.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked No | 70c | 98.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes | 19c | 97.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 30c | 96.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 96.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 86.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 82.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 80.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…cf28backed No | 79c | 77.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 66.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…4186backed Yes | 21c | 59.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 59.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 80c | 56.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 55.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Yes | 23c | 49.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…2c0dbacked No | 73c | 48.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 47.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 47.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 32c | 46.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 31c | 44.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 43.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 40.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 69c | 35.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 68c | 35.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 32.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 22.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 77c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 75c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71db…1700backed No | 69c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.