Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7dd5e7f133440517d31e471ceda8fea254704525d08fe5b63c3ba3819f3c45b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 488.65$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 42c | 258.48$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 254.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 73c | 234.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 27c | 186.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 78c | 171.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 168.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 159.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 70c | 150.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 133.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 44c | 128.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 46c | 115.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 113.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 110.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 65c | 104.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 101.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 71c | 98.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 98.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 80c | 97.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 30c | 94.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 85.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2f…4178backed No | 20c | 68.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 49c | 68.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…4e59backed No | 56c | 46.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 44.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 68c | 42.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 39.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 36c | 38.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 46c | 36.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 53c | 35.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 66c | 34.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 66c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 65c | 32.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 31.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 72c | 31.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 78c | 30.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 38c | 29.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 29.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 27.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 53c | 26.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 54c | 26.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 75c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 25.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 65c | 24.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 23.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 58c | 22.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 68c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…ceebbacked Yes | 61c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc55c…5cdcbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.