South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-04-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbddef00c9ae9b2736a436b89e07ed9233ff1d7732ec047be6fd8b88643eed102
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 34c | 5,171$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.5 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 20c | 3,900$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.87 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 2,381$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.08 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 1,635$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.41 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 1,083$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.92 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 854.32$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 20c | 772.39$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.26 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 38c | 577.68$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.52 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 37c | 520.55$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…4cacbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…9583backed No | 63c | 465.62$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 23c | 428.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 404.02$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 394.15$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 35c | 392.24$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.07 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…317ebacked Yes | 14c | 345.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 336.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 68c | 227.91$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 63c | 222$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Yes | 14c | 196.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 38c | 190.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…4309backed Yes | 14c | 169.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes | 21c | 164.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 36c | 161.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 64c | 137.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 37c | 104.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e01…271fbacked Yes | 14c | 101.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 23c | 95.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 63c | 83.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 38c | 78.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 37c | 78.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 64c | 74.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 63.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 78c | 59.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…e57cbacked Yes | 38c | 48.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 37c | 41.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…b39ebacked No | 71c | 30.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Yes | 38c | 29.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 63c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…266ebacked No | 64c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed No | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 66c | 15.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-04-05?this page
- Will EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.