South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd19436f8fbb3072a9224764451e6e6b687b8a599c350e19b9f3640528020f361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 71c | 3,741$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.98 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 3,630$2,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.31 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 29c | 3,532$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.54 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 42c | 2,778$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.54 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 28c | 836.21$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 44c | 794.25$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.77 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 28c | 699.98$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.99 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 68c | 613$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.16 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 612.32$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.94 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…4cacbacked No | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 482.03$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 32c | 375$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 70c | 334.19$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…dedebacked Yes | 30c | 314.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 64c | 305.75$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 30c | 292.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 34c | 263.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…17a6backed Yes | 31c | 216.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 72c | 204.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…c1bbbacked Yes | 31c | 166.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 28c | 162.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 149.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…a3b6backed Yes | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 30c | 124.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 69c | 119.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 106.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 32c | 105.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 40c | 97.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 95.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 13c | 91.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 60c | 89.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 31c | 83.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 30c | 81.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 29c | 80.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 37c | 80.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 13c | 79.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2a76backed Yes | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 35c | 63.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…1edabacked Yes | 68c | 63.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 49c | 61.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 48c | 60.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Yes | 31c | 59.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed No | 48c | 58.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Yes | 30c | 56.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…a9b9backed Yes | 67c | 51.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 68c | 49.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Yes | 30c | 48.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 32c | 47.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb037…e706backed Yes | 78c | 44.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 44.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 67c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 69c | 39.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 71c | 39.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 65c | 34.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…df71backed Yes | 64c | 31.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…9edabacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…4c97backed Yes | 58c | 21.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 70c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed No | 69c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?this page
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-04-05?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.