Asian League · resolved market
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbde4b4586103fe231525eefc4ec246a976a00654747b62c321d46f7078b4b452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 3,833$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.87 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 602.72$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.91 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 55c | 483$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.35 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 447.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 19c | 447.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 30c | 333.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 39c | 288.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 208.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 17c | 199.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 30c | 167.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 166.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 19c | 122.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 112.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 52c | 92.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…bb0abacked Over | 65c | 56.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Under | 35c | 52.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 62c | 51.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 35c | 46.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 45.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 60c | 43.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 67c | 42.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 54c | 42.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 48c | 41.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 50c | 32.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Over | 68c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…720cbacked Over | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.